Fuel prices are set to change again next Monday after this week’s sharp rise, although the expected adjustments should be smaller this time.
Forecast for Monday’s diesel and petrol prices
According to current projections, regular diesel (gasóleo simples) is likely to increase by around two cents per litre. By contrast, regular petrol (gasolina simples) is expected to fall by one cent per litre.
If this forecast is confirmed, the average prices for regular petrol and regular diesel should remain above €2 per litre, reaching 2,063 €/l and 2,015 €/l, respectively. This week, regular diesel once again became more expensive than regular petrol for the second time this year.
Oil markets: Brent retreats on international exchanges
These movements come at a time when crude oil prices continue to correct in international markets. After climbing to close to 98 dollars per barrel, Brent has fallen back and is now trading at around 86 dollars.
Since the start of the conflict between the United States and Iran, the average price of regular diesel has hit a high of 2,145 euros per litre, while regular petrol reached 2,024 euros per litre.
How the DGEG averages are calculated
These figures are based on the average prices published by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) - in this case, the data for last Thursday, 30 July. The values reported by the DGEG already include the discounts applied by fuel retailers, along with the Government measures currently in place.
Even so, it is important to note that these are not necessarily the prices you will see at the pump. They are average, indicative figures only. Each filling station remains free to set its own prices according to its commercial strategy.
Measures currently in force
In response to the rise in fuel prices driven by the worsening conflict in the Middle East, the Government increased the extraordinary discount applied to ISP (Imposto sobre os Produtos Petrolíferos e Energéticos).
The ministerial order currently in force, in effect since 6 July, sets the extraordinary discount at 7,52 cents per litre for diesel and 5,50 cents per litre for petrol.
Although the ministerial order for next week has not yet been published, the fresh increase expected in fuel prices could prompt the Government to reinforce this extraordinary discount again, particularly for regular diesel.
It should be recalled that this exceptional measure was initially only due to run until the end of June. However, the Minister for the Environment and Energy, Maria da Graça Carvalho, has already assured that the support will remain in place while current market conditions persist, and that it will be withdrawn gradually once the situation stabilises.
In addition to these steps, the Government has also announced a new contribution on the windfall profits of oil companies. The revenue will be used to fund measures aimed at easing the impact of higher fuel prices on families and businesses.
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