Fuel prices to fall on 10 August after five weeks of rises

After five straight weeks of increases, fuel prices are expected to reverse course at the start of next week, on 10 August - with a sizeable drop.

Expected fuel price cuts from 10 August

Forecasts indicate that both regular diesel and regular petrol will fall by around 12 cents per litre and 12.5 cents per litre, respectively.

This sharp fall comes at a time when the price of oil continues to retreat on international markets. After climbing to close to 98 dollars per barrel, Brent has moved lower again and, at the time this article was published, was trading at around 82 dollars.

If the forecast is confirmed, the average price of regular diesel should settle at 1,931 €/l, while regular petrol is expected to drop to 1,855 €/l. Both fuels would once again come in below two euros per litre, although regular diesel would remain more expensive than regular petrol.

Even with the drop in diesel, it would still need to fall much further to match the level seen before the latest five-week climb began. At that point, on 5 July, the average price stood at 1,767 €/l.

How the average prices are calculated (DGEG)

The figures are based on the average prices published by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) - in this case, those for last Thursday, 6 August. The DGEG values already include discounts applied by fuel retailers, as well as the government measures currently in force.

Even so, it is important to note that these are not necessarily the prices you will see at the pump. They are average, indicative figures only. Each filling station is free to set its own prices in line with its commercial strategy.

Measures currently in force

In response to the fuel price increases driven by the worsening conflict in the Middle East, the Government strengthened the extraordinary discount applied to ISP (Tax on Petroleum and Energy Products).

Extraordinary ISP discount

The order currently in effect sets the extraordinary discount at 7,87 cents per litre for diesel and 5,24 cents per litre for petrol.

Although the order covering next week has not yet been published, the newly forecast fall in fuel prices could lead the Government to reduce the extraordinary discount again - meaning the actual drop in pump prices may be smaller than currently projected.

It should be remembered that this exceptional measure was initially due to run only until the end of June. However, the Minister for the Environment and Energy, Maria da Graça Carvalho, has already assured that the support will remain in place while current market conditions persist, and will be withdrawn gradually once the situation stabilises.

Additional measures announced

Alongside these steps, the Government has also announced a new contribution on oil companies’ windfall profits. The revenue will be used to fund measures designed to soften the impact of rising fuel prices on households and businesses.